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Thinking Like Vegas: Week 3


by Joe Caputo

It’s time.  Week 3 is upon us, and after a stellar Week 2 (while most other “experts” struggled, mind you), maybe I’ve gained some credibility among readers.  I know, I know, I’m not getting your respect that easy.  That’s why I’m back again to prove my worth.  This week, because I’m just oh so confident, I’ll pick 7 games.  I’ll also throw in my wacky parlay of the week.  The last 2 weeks, my 24 to 1 longshot parlay has come up 1 game short (San Diego in Week 1, Jacksonville in Week 2).  Hopefully the 3rd time’s the charm.  Let’s get it started.

CINCINNATI (-6.5) v Tennessee

Another week, another Bengal disrespect at home.  Tennessee hasn’t shown much this year other than a beatdown of Kansas City, which, well, who knows how good of a win that actually is.  Word is AJ Green may indeed even play in this game, but I don’t think it really matters.  Keep taking the Bengals at home until they show you a reason not to.

My Pick: Bengals

NY GIANTS (+2.5) v Houston

“The Giants suck.”

Been seeing that phrase a bunch after the first two weeks of this season, and many people have been quick to write them off in this match-up.  The oddsmakers know that, that’s why they made the Texans a field goal favorite.  The public will still blindly bet the Texans in this game, but why?  Houston has had the easiest 2-game schedule in the NFL, and now have to go on the road for a second straight game.  Everyone is so quick to bash Eli Manning, but have you forgotten who’s quarterbacking the Texans!?  This is one of my favorite bets of the week.

My pick: Giants

SAINT LOUIS (+1) v Dallas

Not usually one to suggest road favorites, but come on.  Aren’t we giving the Rams a little too much credit here?  They beat the Bucs, who Vegas has as one of their bottom 3 teams at the moment.  And Dallas?  Yea, they got smoked in Week 1, but if it weren’t for the turnovers, they really didn’t play too bad in that game.  DeMarco Murray is the NFL’s best running back right now, and the Cowboys don’t usually mind playing on the road.  I’ll give the point in STL.

My Pick: Cowboys

JACKSONVILLE (+6.5) v Indianapolis

A good example of mentalities clashing.  The Colts are desperate for a win, playing a poisonous team that does not deserve to be picked by anyone.  However, getting a touchdown at home should always be enticing to a bettor.  In this case, I’ll pass on the touchdown, however, on the thought that the Jaguars are just that bad.  Had the Colts been coming off a big win, or maybe had a big game next week, I could see them sleepwalking through this game, but after the way their first two weeks have gone, they should be nice and focused and determined.  Also doesn’t hurt to know that last year, as a touchdown favorite at Jacksonville, the Colts won by 34.

My Pick: Colts

PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) v Washington

This line is absolutely BEGGING the public to bet the Eagles, and they will.  Give it til Sunday morning, and you’ll be able to get the Skins at +7.5.  That’s why I’m waiting to bet.  The Eagles are caught in the middle of what I like to call a “trap.”  Coming off a huge road win on Monday night, and knowing they’re going to play San Fran out by the bay next week, Philly probably thinks they can sleepwalk through another first half and pull off their 3rd straight double-digit comeback.  I don’t see that happening, and I actually like Washington outright in this game.

My Pick: Redskins

BUFFALO (-2) v San Diego

Boy do I love games like this.  While everyone will spend the week drooling over San Diego’s monster win over the Super Bowl champs and wondering why they are underdogs at Buffalo, I will focus on the fact that they will be traveling cross-country to play this game against a still underrated Bills team.  Last year, the Chargers had plenty of “big wins” on their resume over Philly, Dallas, and Kansas City.  In the games following those?  Losses to Tennessee, Oakland, and Cincinnati.

My Pick: Bills

NY JETS (-2.5) v Chicago

What a win by Chicago Sunday Night.  What a loss by the Jets Sunday afternoon.  Think you sense a trend.

My Pick: Jets


For the longshot, go Dallas, Washington, Green Bay, Kansas City moneylines.  A $5 parlay would pay $183.  36 to 1 odds never hurt anyone.

My most important Week 3 message: Stay consistent with your methods.  If you truly believe your thought process works (as I do) you’re not going to just be able to pick and choose which games it will work on.  Sure, you’re not going to win every game, but if you are confident in the way you think, evaluate your success on an aggregate basis, not just on a game here and a game there.

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  • Papi

    Joey we do think alike, when the line looks so easy you have to go the other way, also when a team looks so good last week go against them this week….Papi